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Taiwan Tati Cultural and Educational Foundation

Heavy rains cause damage in south

Torrential rain that began on Monday night damaged roads and bridges in central and southern Taiwan yesterday, affecting areas hit by Typhoon Morakot last year particularly badly.

The Directorate-General of Highways (DGH) said it had closed 11 highways and bridges nationwide because of dangerously high river levels or landslides.

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Method to Ma’s blind madness

Ever since President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) took office, he has pursued a pro-China policy that has caused concern throughout Taiwan because we have effectively placed our independence and sovereignty in the hands of his administration. During the two years he has been trying to sell the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) to the public, he has consistently said that he would safeguard everything that needs safeguarding and assured us that the deal was purely economic in nature and would not effect Taiwan’s autonomy. He also promised that he would not discuss the issue of unification with China during his presidency.

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Carrier leads joint US-Korean drills

A nuclear-powered US supercarrier led an armada of warships in exercises off the Korean peninsula yesterday that North Korea has vowed to physically block and says could escalate into nuclear war.

US military officials said the maneuvers, conducted with South Korean ships and Japanese observers, were intended to send a strong signal to the North that aggression in the region would not be tolerated.

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ANALYSIS: Taiwan's negotiators not on the ball

The recent dispute between Taipei and Beijing over additional cross-strait flights highlights the administration’s need to improve its negotiating skills, analysts said.

Taiwan suspended five cross-strait flights operated by Chinese airlines in retaliation for decisions by Beijing that affect Taiwanese airlines. The dispute centers around the distribution of 50 flights added to the schedule after negotiations in May.

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Page 1347 of 1518

Newsflash

The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 yesterday fell below 50 percent for the first time since May, according to a university prediction market.

Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event.

On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of Ma winning a re-election bid was, according to bidders, NT$48.40, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.

The center has market predictions on topics including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.

The re-election market had attracted 860,000 trading entries as of yesterday. It was launched in April.

The center said the figure slipped 2.3 percentage points yesterday from a day earlier, when Ma conceded that his party did not fare as well as hoped in the “three-in-one” elections.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won 12 of Saturday’s 17 mayor and commissioner elections, but its total percentage of votes fell 2 percentage points from 2005 to 47.88 percent of votes nationwide.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won just four of the races, but received 45.32 percent of the ballots, or a 7.2 percentage-point increase from 2005.

Since the center opened the trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but jumped to NT$70 in mid-June. The figure then fell to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.

After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.

Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. After Saturday’s elections, the figure fell below NT$50.

The center said the outcome yesterday would likely affect next year’s elections for the five special municipalities, as well as the next presidential election.

It also said the probability of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) winning re-election was 72 percent, while the chances of Taipei County Commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) winning again were 20 percent.

Source: Taipei Times 2009/12/07