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Home Editorials of Interest Taipei Times Fighting disinformation with votes

Fighting disinformation with votes

Voters in the nine-in-one local elections on Nov. 26 did not regard the China issue as the most important concern when casting their ballots, despite Beijing’s best efforts. The Information Operations Research Group uncovered a lot of disinformation spread by China this year in its attempts to sway voters with its rhetoric on “war” and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Disinformation regarding war might be more effective in the run-up to the 2024 presidential election. In a report released on Saturday based on a review of more than 8 million Facebook posts, 6,000 news articles from Taiwan, 2,000 official releases from China regarding Taiwan affairs, 800,000 posts on Chinese social media and 50,000 TikTok videos this year found that “war” and “pandemic” were the two top issues involved when information was manipulated.

For example, a Facebook account titled “Headline across the Strait,” which the Investigation Bureau determined was funded by China, posted negative news reports targeting former minister of health and welfare Chen Shih-chung (陳時中), the Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate for Taipei mayor.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February and China held military drills surrounding Taiwan in August, research by the group showed that China tried to spread disinformation with headlines such as: “The Russia-Ukraine war happened due to Ukraine’s provocation, so Taiwan shouldn’t be provocative to China,” “Once war breaks out in the Taiwan Strait, the US will abandon Taiwan” and “China holds drill, USS Ronald Reagan flees.”

This disinformation is obviously part of China’s cognitive warfare aimed at provoking the fear of war and increasing the tendency to capitulate.

More concerning is that some politicians and pro-China groups in Taiwan are echoing the rhetoric.

In last month’s elections, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and senior party figures such as former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) spread messages saying that “voting for the DPP could bring war, and supporting the KMT would ensure peace in the Taiwan Strait.”

Former UMC chairman Robert Tsao (曹興誠) admonished Ma, saying he was trying to brainwash the public to surrender without fighting and to sacrifice Taiwan to achieve Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) “great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.”

Taiwan has endured China’s military threat for more than 70 years and has never been a threat to China, but Xi has made it clear that China will use all measures to annex Taiwan. There is no room for the Republic of China, nor for Taiwan’s sovereignty or freedom.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin warned that “China is the only country with both the will and, increasingly, the power to reshape its region and the international order to suit its authoritarian preference,” adding: “Let’s make it clear. We won’t let that happen.”

Japan also plans to increase its national defense budget.

To avoid war takes wisdom and bravery. The government has shown reasonable restraint in the face of China’s provocation ranging from military threats to economic and diplomatic suppression. Boosting self-defense capability and military preparedness should be crucial strategies to deter the enemy from launching a war that will hurt both sides.

More international support could enhance Taiwan’s strength, but it is crucial that Taiwanese show a strong will to protect their homeland. This effort begins with stopping the spread of disinformation.


Source: Taipei Times - Editorials 2022/12/07



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Newsflash

The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 yesterday fell below 50 percent for the first time since May, according to a university prediction market.

Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event.

On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of Ma winning a re-election bid was, according to bidders, NT$48.40, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.

The center has market predictions on topics including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.

The re-election market had attracted 860,000 trading entries as of yesterday. It was launched in April.

The center said the figure slipped 2.3 percentage points yesterday from a day earlier, when Ma conceded that his party did not fare as well as hoped in the “three-in-one” elections.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won 12 of Saturday’s 17 mayor and commissioner elections, but its total percentage of votes fell 2 percentage points from 2005 to 47.88 percent of votes nationwide.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won just four of the races, but received 45.32 percent of the ballots, or a 7.2 percentage-point increase from 2005.

Since the center opened the trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but jumped to NT$70 in mid-June. The figure then fell to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.

After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.

Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. After Saturday’s elections, the figure fell below NT$50.

The center said the outcome yesterday would likely affect next year’s elections for the five special municipalities, as well as the next presidential election.

It also said the probability of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) winning re-election was 72 percent, while the chances of Taipei County Commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) winning again were 20 percent.

Source: Taipei Times 2009/12/07