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Home Editorials of Interest Taipei Times US’ flag removal points at real shift

US’ flag removal points at real shift

The removal of the Republic of China (ROC) flag from the Web sites of several US government agencies has raised concerns about whether one of Taiwan’s most strategically important allies is slipping away amid pressure from China.

On Wednesday, the Chinese-language United Daily News reported that the ROC flag, which until recently was displayed on pages about Taiwan on the Web sites of the US Department of State’s Bureau of Consular Affairs and the US Trade Representative, had disappeared.

The discovery dashed already slim hopes that the state department’s removal of the ROC flag from its official Web site in September last year was simply a design change after US President Donald Trump’s administration took office — or an “isolated case,” as Representative to the US Stanley Kao (高碩泰) put it — rather than a shift in Washington’s policy toward Taiwan.

Even though the American Institute in Taiwan, which serves as the US’ de facto embassy in Taipei in the absence of diplomatic ties, reiterated the US’ commitment to the Three Communiques and the Taiwan Relations Act in the wake of the two separate events, the lack of any explanation is certainly cause for worry.

For a long time, the US has carefully balanced its ties with Taiwan and China.

Washington has tried not to poke the bear that happens to be its biggest creditor and trading partner. On the other hand, the US is bound by past commitments to assist the nation of 23 million people in maintaining effective military defenses and to stand with it on matters of shared values, such as democracy and human rights.

It is naive to think that this cautiously maintained balance can last forever, as too many variables are involved and even a minor policy change by one of the nations involved could increase its precariousness.

This is particularly the case if the change comes from Beijing, an unpredictable regime known for its attempts to influence others.

Instead of being characterized by outright hostility and provocations, as seen during former president Chen Shui-bian’s (陳水扁) administration between 2000 and 2008, cross-strait relations today are more of a tug-of-war, with both sides testing each other’s limits.

On one side, President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) has held her ground and withstood mounting pressure from China — and also from people with a vested interest there — for her administration to make political compromises.

In her year-end news conference on Dec. 30, Tsai said negotiations were not necessarily conducted through language, because “sometimes your posture and attitude can also be a form of negotiation.”

This could be seen as a strategy of “playing it cool,” a stance that seeks to avoid letting the enemy know how their actions truly affect you.

Ostensibly fazed by Tsai’s lukewarm responses to its periodic attempts to oppress Taiwan, Beijing has upped its game, going to extremes with browbeating tactics — such as putting pressure on foreign relations and international organizations — and exploring other unchartered territory.

Chances are high that if the US government is systematically removing the ROC flag from its official Web sites, the reason behind it is China.

Such incidents could truly undermine Taiwanese perceptions of US-Taiwan ties, as the moves could be interpreted as reduced support from the US, an important player in the maintenance of cross-strait peace.

However, we should conduct an overall examination of US policies before overreacting and jumping to the scary conclusion that our ally is walking away from us.


Source: Taipei Times - Editorials 2018/01/26



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Newsflash

The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 yesterday fell below 50 percent for the first time since May, according to a university prediction market.

Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event.

On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of Ma winning a re-election bid was, according to bidders, NT$48.40, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.

The center has market predictions on topics including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.

The re-election market had attracted 860,000 trading entries as of yesterday. It was launched in April.

The center said the figure slipped 2.3 percentage points yesterday from a day earlier, when Ma conceded that his party did not fare as well as hoped in the “three-in-one” elections.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won 12 of Saturday’s 17 mayor and commissioner elections, but its total percentage of votes fell 2 percentage points from 2005 to 47.88 percent of votes nationwide.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won just four of the races, but received 45.32 percent of the ballots, or a 7.2 percentage-point increase from 2005.

Since the center opened the trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but jumped to NT$70 in mid-June. The figure then fell to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.

After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.

Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. After Saturday’s elections, the figure fell below NT$50.

The center said the outcome yesterday would likely affect next year’s elections for the five special municipalities, as well as the next presidential election.

It also said the probability of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) winning re-election was 72 percent, while the chances of Taipei County Commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) winning again were 20 percent.

Source: Taipei Times 2009/12/07