Taiwan Tati Cultural and Educational Foundation

With the fall of Kabul not yet six months past, Washington faces a fresh test of its ability to sustain Pax Americana, as more than 100,000 Russian troops, heavy artillery and tanks mass on Russia’s border with Ukraine. The mounting crisis looks set to become the greatest test of US President Joe Biden’s administration to date — the outcome of which could have far-reaching implications and send ripples through the Taiwan Strait.

Moscow’s Ukraine gambit appears designed to probe the Biden administration — to ferret out its red lines and ascertain whether Washington is willing to commit troops to defend its ally. In essence, the purpose is to determine whether Biden is all bark and no bite. There can be little doubt that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平), who openly aspires to dethrone the US as the world’s pre-eminent power, is watching the unfolding events with keen interest.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) threw all of its weight behind last month’s four referendums — all of which it initiated — as well as a by-election in Taichung’s second electoral district and a recall vote for independent Legislator Freddy Lim (林昶佐) in Taipei’s fifth electoral district, both on Jan. 9.

In a key test of public opinion, the KMT lost everything: each referendum, the recall vote and the by-election.

However, despite the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) being victorious in all instances — having opposed all four referendums and the recall vote, and successfully installing its candidate, Lin Ching-yi (林靜儀), in Taichung’s second electoral district — the party should take care not to get ahead of itself.