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Home Editorials of Interest Taipei Times A spy balloon and Thucydides trap

A spy balloon and Thucydides trap

For the average American, munching popcorn while watching television, the pictures on the screen appeared to be those of a “strange-looking moon,” while his wife thought it looked “more like a meteor.” They got the shock of their lives when the newsreader said it was a spy balloon that had come all the way from China across Canada to Montana.

After initially being reticent about the balloon — it was a surveillance airship — the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement admitting that “the airship is from China” used for meteorological research. The airship strayed away from its planned course caused by force majeure and entered US airspace, the foreign ministry tried to explain.

The US side rejected this, with US Department of Defense press secretary Patrick Ryder saying during a press briefing: “We do know that the balloon has violated US airspace and international law, which is unacceptable, and we’ve conveyed that [to China] at multiple levels.”

The first casualty of this airspace violation was the planned China visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who said that they had noted China’s “statement of regret, but conveyed that this is an irresponsible act and a clear violation of US sovereignty and international law that undermined the purpose of the trip.”

US politicians and diplomats did not believe for a moment that China’s “regret” was sincere.

Over the years, China has gained notoriety by not only violating the laws of other countries, but also persisting in establishing and expanding its clandestine foothold in other countries — whether it is in the form of Confucius Institutes in the US or the so-called police stations in the Netherlands and other European countries, or blatantly violating the sovereignty and territorial integrity of other countries such as neighboring states in the South China Sea, India and, of course, the innumerable violations of Taiwan’s airspace.

Finally, the balloon sighted in the US was shot down on Saturday off the coast of South Carolina.

The Pentagon said that a second Chinese spy balloon had also been seen over Latin America, with reported sightings over Costa Rica and Venezuela, and Colombia’s Air Force said that the balloon was seen on Friday last week in the country’s airspace at above 16,700m.

This is not the first spy balloon sighted in the skies above the US. According to intelligence reports, China had sent three spy balloons to the US during former US president Donald Trump’s administration. This was confirmed in a statement issued on Saturday by the US Department of Defense.

None of those previous incursions had lasted as long as the latest spy balloon which the US military shot down.

Many countries use aerial spying technology to gather data on rival nations, as well as allies and partners, and to look at remote parts of the globe. Some countries have used balloons, while others have deployed drones.

Pentagon experts have been saying that China’s investments in its military have surged, particularly in technologies that could have military or intelligence applications.

Many world leaders have followed the developments related to the surveillance balloon. While, officially, the Indian government kept silent, the Indian media have played up China’s intrusive attempts violating the territorial integrity of other countries.

Indian and Chinese troops clashed along the Himalayan border region — the so-called Line of Actual Control. Some experts have called for greater alertness as China reportedly engages in spying in India, particularly in regard to its armed forces.

Chinese troops are building up infrastructure very close to the Line of Actual Control with a view to spying on India’s troop movements and other assets.

“How many moons have been sighted over India?” one editorial asked sardonically, referring to the “moon” sighted over Montana.

Taiwan’s airspace has also been brazenly and frequently violated by China’s fighter jets.

Referring to the balloon incident in the US, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Taipei said in a statement: “The Chinese Communist Party government’s actions that violate international law and violate the airspace and sovereignty of other countries should not be tolerated in a civilized international community.”

Exercising alertness is key to dealing with China, which under its present communist leaders will not stop with just balloon surveillance. That country, in the midst of internal convulsions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and an economic downturn, will cling to its position as one of the world’s two superpowers, despite all the external niceties and comforting words aimed to lull foreign leaders and critics into complacency, China’s leadership will continue to find ways to cement its military superiority and expand its sphere of influence.

China, which projects itself as a “responsible country” that has “always strictly abided by international law and has no intention of violating the territory or airspace of any sovereign country,” as Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning (毛寧) claimed during a briefing on Friday last week in Beijing, is not likely to abandon its tough adversarial line against the free world.

China, which has a tight grip on smaller and economically weaker states in Africa, Asia and Latin America, will now resort to strengthening its foothold in developed countries.

It would be naive for the free world to ignore such attempts by China to extend its sphere of influence, and challenge and overtake the rival superpower, the US.

This behavior epitomizes the conduct of a country caught in a Thucydides trap.

Manik Mehta is a New York-based journalist who writes extensively on foreign affairs, the UN, US bilateral relations, global economics, trade and business.


Source: Taipei Times - Editorials 2023/02/08



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