Democracy is in peril due to the rise of authoritarianism, while cooperation among authoritarians has become more menacing.
However, advanced democracies have failed to properly respond to the threat posed by illiberal powers.
A report this year by Washington-based non-profit Freedom House titled The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule sounded a warning.
“Authoritarian regimes have become more effective at coopting or circumventing the norms and institutions meant to support basic liberties,” the report said.
Russia and China are causing “long-term democratic decline” by enhancing their global influence while “escaping accountability for abuses,” Freedom House wrote in 2019.
Meanwhile, the danger of the unholy alliance is that the new partnership shares contempt and disregard for human rights and democratic values.
The anti-democratic alliance between China and Russia has at least three things in common: repressing civil societies, tightening their grip on democracy’s defenders and intimidating weaker powers.
Russia’s crackdowns against citizens’ freedom of expression seem to be along similar lines to China’s poor human rights records. Moscow and Beijing have also fostered bilateral relations by ramping up misinformation and propaganda campaigns to benefit their political objectives.
The mutual supportive stance has buttressed the determination of the two authoritarian regimes. Russia showcased its support for China by declaring Taiwan as part of China and listing Taiwan as an “unfriendly” nation taking “unfriendly actions against Russia, Russian companies, and citizens.” The action was followed by Taiwan’s announcement of sanctions in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.
For its part, Beijing abstained from voting against the invasion, refrained from using the term “invasion,” called Russia China’s “most important strategic partner” despite the war and voted against kicking Russia off the UN Human Rights Council, calling the UN’s decision to expel Russia’s membership “very dangerous” and an act of “politicization.”
There is mounting evidence that Chinese groups have launched cyberattacks against Ukraine’s government following Moscow’s invasion.
In response to Russia’s inclusion of Taiwan on its so-called “unfriendly countries” list, Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman Zhao Lijian (趙立堅) bluntly said that Moscow “has the right to make its own decisions.”
In general, this alliance of autocracies has sought to undermine the liberal international order by proclaiming a “redistribution of power in the world.”
While Russia is seeking to reshape the geopolitical structure in Europe, China is heading toward a grand mastery of regional and global hegemony.
As the coalition between global authoritarian regimes has become more perilous, there are increasing concerns that the Russia-China alliance could pose a seismic challenge to global democracies.
Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd warned that Beijing and Moscow are heading toward a “near-complete strategic condominium” to challenge Washington for “global leadership.”
History testifies to this challenge. The foundation of the Axis powers in World War II was traced back to a coalition between Fascist Italy, Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan. At the time, the three powers aimed to “establish and maintain a new order of things” in their 1940 Tripartite Pact. The alliance marked the culmination of cooperation between the authoritarian governments of Adolf Hitler’s Germany, Benito Mussolini’s Italy and Emperor Hirohito’s Japan, with Hungary, Romania, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia and Croatia subsequently joining.
However, it was European countries’ policy of appeasement in the 1930s that emboldened the Axis powers’ aggression. To a certain extent, indecisive efforts from the West, such as a refusal to tackle the Nazis and a lack of solidarity to address the rising threat, failed to prevent the Axis powers from sparking the deadliest war in history.
Russia and China are likely to keep their bilateral relationship on the current trajectory, especially when this de facto alliance has been enhanced by gradual efforts of rapprochement under successive generations of leaders in Moscow and Beijing.
Although there remain frictions in Sino-Russian ties — concerns over China’s growing influence in Central Asia, Siberia and the Russian far east, for instance — the two great powers have sought to enhance cooperation via regional institutions. Their “top brass” would likely seek to keep disparities in the relations under control.
As the collusion between Russia and China is dubbed a “marriage of convenience,” as professor of international affairs Charles Kupchan said in an article for Foreign Affairs magazine in August last year, Washington and its allies should drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, such as by helping Russia reduce its economic dependence on China, and launching economic and military development projects in the Arctic.
However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has made prospects of cooperation between the West and Moscow naive.
For the US and its fellow democracies, neither engaging with China and Russia nor driving a wedge between them could put the Sino-Russian bond in check.
Conversely, Chinese tabloid the Global Times even said that China and Russia have been and should continue to count on each other to avoid being isolated in case a full-scale confrontation between Russia, or China, and the West arises.
In the face of authoritarianism, it is essential to shore up democratic alliances and call for support from US allies, including like-minded partners in Europe and the Indo-Pacific region.
In December last year, US President Joe Biden said that protecting democracy was “the defining challenge of our time.” As the Sino-Russian coalition is placing liberal values in jeopardy, it is high time that Washington and like-minded democracies put their commitments into action.
The good news is that the split between democratic nations — notably the members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue and authoritarian powers — is widening, leading to growing determination to consolidate the rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific region.
The bad news is that the West is far from embracing a comprehensive strategy to counter the coalition between China and Russia.
A good start for the consolidation of liberal democratic alignment is the move to put benign powers on the same page, as enhancing their economic capability through diplomatic ties and economic resilience could advance their resolve to form a democratic framework in the Indo-Pacific region.
Washington’s new Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is expected to be launched as early as next month. The US and leading powers in the region should include Taiwan, which is a beacon of democracy, but faces intimidation from the authoritarian alliance, and South Korea, which is a traditional ally of the US and might enhance security ties with Washington under South Korean president-elect Yoon Suk-yeol.
The statecraft of the US is the crucial factor shaping the unity and steadfastness among its allies and partners, thus sending a robust and nuanced message to desperate actions taken by China and Russia.
Huynh Tam Sang, a doctorate holder and international relations lecturer at Ho Chi Minh City University of Social Sciences and Humanities, is a research fellow at the Taiwan NextGen Foundation and a nonresident WSD-Handa Fellow at the Pacific Forum. Pham Do An is a research assistant at Ho Chi Minh City University of Social Sciences and Humanities.
Source: Taipei Times - Editorials 2022/04/13
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