Taiwan Tati Cultural and Educational Foundation

 
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Taiwan Tati Cultural and Educational Foundation

Chinese miscalculation a real threat

When analyzing Taiwan-China tensions, most people assume that the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) consists of rational actors. Embedded within this belief are three further suppositions: First, Beijing would only launch an attack on Taiwan if it were in China’s national interest; second, it would only attack if the odds were overwhelmingly in its favor; and third, Chinese decisionmakers interpret information objectively and through the same lens as other actors.

These assumptions have underpinned recent analyses — including by Minister of National Defense Chiu Kuo-cheng (邱國正) — concluding that there is no immediate danger of a Chinese attack against Taiwan. The consensus is that the earliest an attack could occur is 2025, and there is a substantial body of opinion that an invasion even then is unlikely.

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Japan, US ‘could not stand by’: Abe


Former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe speaks via video link to a forum organized by the Institute for National Policy Research in Taipei yesterday.
Photo: Peter Lo, Taipei Times

Japan and the US could not stand by if China attacked Taiwan, and Beijing needs to understand this, former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said yesterday.

Speaking virtually to a forum organized by Taiwanese think tank the Institute for National Policy Research, Abe said that the Senkaku Islands — known as the Diaoyutai Islands (釣魚台) in Taiwan — the Sakishima Islands and Yonaguni Island are only about 100km from Taiwan.

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Xi’s troubles as the fantasy melts

The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) sixth plenary session has ended and from all appearances, Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) has set the stage to rule for the rest of his life.

Some might be tempted to declare that this calls for Xi to do a victory lap, but all is not well on the other side of the Taiwan Strait.

To parody a line from Ya Got Trouble, a song from Broadway musical The Music Man: “There’s trouble in River City, (aka, Beijing). Trouble with a capital T, which rhymes with C for CCP.”

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Government hails French resolution


Representative to France Francois Wu, right, and the staff of the Taipei Representative Office in Paris on Monday toast to celebrate the French National Assembly’s adoption of a resolution in support of Taiwan’s international participation.
Photo courtesy of Francois Wu

The government yesterday thanked the French National Assembly for adopting a resolution on Monday in support of Taiwan’s international participation, following a similar resolution passed by the French Senate in May.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs praised the resolution’s passage as “historic” and as demonstrating the concrete support of both chambers of the French parliament for Taiwan’s participation in international affairs.

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Newsflash


Taiwan March cofounders Chen Wei-ting, center, and Huang Kuo-chang, left, hold a demonstration at the Miramar Plaza in Taipei yesterday.
Photo: Chien Jung-fong, Taipei Times

Activist groups yesterday campaigned at the Miramar Plaza in Taipei’s Dazhi area to call for amendments to the Referendum Act (公民投票法) and recalling legislators they say are not doing their jobs.

Taiwan March (島國前進) leader Chen Wei-ting (陳為廷) said that President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) administration’s response to the public’s demands across a range of issues has been to hold a national affairs conference on economics and trade and establish a youth advisory group for the Executive Yuan.