Taiwan Tati Cultural and Educational Foundation

“There can be no doubt but that the eventual fate of Formosa largely rests with the US. Unless the US’ political-military strategic position in the Far East is to be abandoned, it is obvious that the time must come in the foreseeable future when a line must be drawn beyond which Communist expansion will be stopped,” reads the memorandum of conversation by then-US ambassador-at-large Philip C. Jessup in 1950.

At the annual Ketagalan Forum on Aug. 8, former US ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley emphasized the importance of the US standing by its allies, especially against global threats from authoritarian regimes such as China. She warned against isolationism and the need for “moral clarity” in supporting Taiwan and highlighted Taiwan’s strategic importance in the Indo-Pacific region. Haley also called for stronger international backing for Taiwan, including its full membership in the UN. Her remarks echoed Jessup’s memorandum, which advocated for active US engagement in Asia to counter regional threats and the expansion of communism.

When former Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe in 2021 said that a contingency in Taiwan would also be an emergency for Japan, it was taken as a warning that Tokyo would have to get involved if conflict erupted in the Taiwan Strait — if not to defend its national security, then certainly to address a transformed security environment if the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) were to annex Taiwan.

What seemed to be an insightful comment then is now — less than three years later — generally regarded to be the case. This is just one measure of how much the regional dynamic has changed. The CCP and its fellow travelers put the blame squarely on the US and its foreign policy, while others say it is the CCP’s behavior that has changed the landscape.

This is not a chicken-and-egg scenario. It is not difficult to see which party is responsible for increasing regional tensions.