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Taiwan Tati Cultural and Educational Foundation

Another lesson for Ma sent by Taiwan voters

Saturday's set of four legislative by-elections sent another clear signal to President Ma Ying-jeou and the ruling rightist Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) most Taiwan citizens desire honest, effective, sincere and progressive government and are fed up with deception, incompetence and arrogance.

The loss of three of four legislative seats Saturday marked the latest in a series of electoral setbacks for Ma and the KMT that began with a victory by the opposition Democratic Progressive Party in a legislative by-election in Yunlin County and was followed by a strong DPP showing in the Dec. 5 local elections and a DPP sweep of three legislative by-elections Jan. 9.

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China is Ma’s ‘opiate of the masses’

Public support for an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) is waning. Far from pulling back from the brink and saying thanks, but no thanks to Beijing, the government put on an orchestrated display with China over the Lunar New Year holidays, governments on both sides acting in concert.

First we had Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) talking to the Taiwanese business community in Zhangzhou, waxing lyrical about an ECFA.

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February 28, 2-28, Taiwan Remains a Day of Mixed Emotions

One can always look at Taiwan in terms of the past or in terms of the present. Never is that brought home more than on February 28th. In terms of the present, today many are celebrating the victory of the DPP party in 3 of the 4 by-elections held yesterday. Again as a statement of no-confidence in the Ma administration's policies, and despite heavy campaigning by the KMT including President Ma, the voters by way of the ballot box re-iterated the fact that Ma's approval ratings and performance ratings remain low, a low that is somewhere between 20 to 30 per cent. So Taiwanese can be happy that they can democratically and freely express their disapproval. But 2-28 means more.

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Are we on the brink of a new 228?

Taiwan today faces a repeat of the tragic 228 Incident that took place 63 years ago.

Following the end of World War II, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) government sent Chen Yi (陳儀) to head its occupation of Taiwan. Chen, his underlings and the armed forces under his command plundered Taiwan at will, with no notion of the rule of law.

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Page 1397 of 1511

Newsflash

The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 yesterday fell below 50 percent for the first time since May, according to a university prediction market.

Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event.

On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of Ma winning a re-election bid was, according to bidders, NT$48.40, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.

The center has market predictions on topics including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.

The re-election market had attracted 860,000 trading entries as of yesterday. It was launched in April.

The center said the figure slipped 2.3 percentage points yesterday from a day earlier, when Ma conceded that his party did not fare as well as hoped in the “three-in-one” elections.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won 12 of Saturday’s 17 mayor and commissioner elections, but its total percentage of votes fell 2 percentage points from 2005 to 47.88 percent of votes nationwide.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won just four of the races, but received 45.32 percent of the ballots, or a 7.2 percentage-point increase from 2005.

Since the center opened the trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but jumped to NT$70 in mid-June. The figure then fell to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.

After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.

Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. After Saturday’s elections, the figure fell below NT$50.

The center said the outcome yesterday would likely affect next year’s elections for the five special municipalities, as well as the next presidential election.

It also said the probability of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) winning re-election was 72 percent, while the chances of Taipei County Commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) winning again were 20 percent.

Source: Taipei Times 2009/12/07