President Tsai Ing-wen’s (蔡英文) telephone call with US president-elect Donald Trump has snowballed into a political storm, a development Beijing probably never anticipated. For years Beijing has heavily relied on the US to promote its “one China” policy without realizing how fragile their plan was. Indeed, Taiwanese know full well that they have been used by the US as a bargaining chip against China, yet they also know they can use that to their advantage, which is key to reversing the situation.
Order comes from certainty; wars come from the misjudgements of each side. The US’ ambiguity in its diplomatic policy with Beijing is not the best strategy. The “status quo” is less stable now than it has been at any time in history. The US’ ambiguous strategy allows Beijing too many illusions, which it expects to grab after paying a high enough price, or becoming more powerful.
When Beijing finds itself further and further away from the goal of annexing Taiwan, and the cost of the arms race cannot be recouped, it will naturally become increasingly realistic for Beijing to take a risk before the window of opportunity closes.
