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Premier says constitutional interpretation on cards

The government could seek a constitutional interpretation if lawmakers vote down its motion to reconsider legislative reform bills today, Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰) said yesterday.

Cho made the comments during a session at the Legislative Yuan on the eve of today’s floor vote on the motion, which is expected to be rejected by the opposition parties’ combined majority.

The legislature is urged to give serious thought to discussing the merits of the bills and ensure their consistency with other legislation and its acceptability among Taiwanese, he said.

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PRC uses religion to influence elections

China has been seeking to influence Taiwanese elections using its ties with local Matsu (媽祖) temples, academics said yesterday as they shared the results of their research published in Foreign Policy Analysis.

Liu Yu-hsi (劉裕皙), one of the authors of “In the Name of Mazu: The Use of Religion by China to Intervene in Taiwanese Elections,” said the international community has been increasingly aware of Russian and Chinese attempts to intervene in foreign elections through religion.

At a forum hosted by the Democratic Progressive Party, the associate professor at Shih Hsin University said that the Chinese Communist Party has sought to use its agents to influence small and medium-sized enterprises, those with low to middle incomes, and residents in central and southern Taiwan.

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Page 19 of 1473

Newsflash

The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 yesterday fell below 50 percent for the first time since May, according to a university prediction market.

Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event.

On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of Ma winning a re-election bid was, according to bidders, NT$48.40, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.

The center has market predictions on topics including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.

The re-election market had attracted 860,000 trading entries as of yesterday. It was launched in April.

The center said the figure slipped 2.3 percentage points yesterday from a day earlier, when Ma conceded that his party did not fare as well as hoped in the “three-in-one” elections.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won 12 of Saturday’s 17 mayor and commissioner elections, but its total percentage of votes fell 2 percentage points from 2005 to 47.88 percent of votes nationwide.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won just four of the races, but received 45.32 percent of the ballots, or a 7.2 percentage-point increase from 2005.

Since the center opened the trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but jumped to NT$70 in mid-June. The figure then fell to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.

After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.

Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. After Saturday’s elections, the figure fell below NT$50.

The center said the outcome yesterday would likely affect next year’s elections for the five special municipalities, as well as the next presidential election.

It also said the probability of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) winning re-election was 72 percent, while the chances of Taipei County Commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) winning again were 20 percent.

Source: Taipei Times 2009/12/07