A new poll suggests the gap between the presidential candidates fielded by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has shrunk to a mere 0.61 percentage points, well within the margin of error.
According to the poll conducted by the Chinese-language Liberty Times (the Taipei Times’ sister paper) from Monday to Wednesday, if President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) of the KMT, DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) all participate in January’s presidential election, Ma would get 33.58 percent of the vote, Tsai 32.97 percent and Soong 11.17 percent.
If it was just the KMT and DPP tickets battling for the presidency, the poll showed that Ma’s support stood at 37.17 percent and Tsai’s stood at 36.29 percent — a gap of only 0.88 percentage points.
Further cross analysis on first-time voter data suggests that Tsai has 32.02 percent support from that group, slightly leading Ma’s 31.46 percent. The addition of Soong to the race would not affect Ma’s support ratings from the group, while Tsai’s would drop to 30.34 percent and Soong would receive 10.11 percent, the poll showed.
In the 40-to-49 age group, counting only the candidates from the KMT and the DPP, the poll showed Tsai would receive 32.51 percent, lagging behind Ma’s 38.52 percent. If it is a three-way battle, it showed Tsai getting 31.97 percent, slightly behind Ma’s 35.52 percent, and that Soong would get 13.93 percent.
In terms of geographic demography, the impact of Soong joining the election on Tsai’s and Ma’s efforts was also noticeable. In northern Taiwan, where Ma holds the advantage, a two-way election scenario shows that Tsai would only get 29.24 percent of the vote in Taipei, far behind Ma’s 39.77 percent. However, in a three-way election, the poll showed Tsai getting 30.99 percent of the vote, Ma receiving 36.26 percent and Soong 12.87 percent.
In the south, the situation is reversed. The poll shows that Tsai leads Ma in Greater Kaohsiung with 43.27 percent of the vote compared with 29.24 percent, but with the addition of Soong, Tsai’s support drops to 36.26 percent, Ma’s falls to 28.07 percent and Soong receives 8.19 percent of the vote.
In the east, Soong’s influence on the election is noticeable. The poll showed that in a two-way vote in Hualien County, Ma would receive 41.67 percent of the vote and Tsai 8.33 percent. However, with the addition of Soong, while Tsai’s support does not change, Ma’s drops to 25 percent, while Soong would receive 29.17 percent.
The poll, conducted by the Liberty Times’ Poll Investigation Center, questioned 1,477 adults and it has a 2.55 percent margin of error. The poll was conducted using random samples based on the last two digits of telephone numbers.
DPP spokesperson Chen Chi-mai (陳其邁) said the DPP’s own polls also show that Tsai and Ma are neck-and-neck. The DPP would continue with its efforts to win the trust of the people, he said.
KMT Culture and Communication Committee Director Chuang Po-chun (莊伯仲) said the KMT respects any polls that are conducted using a transparent process and a thorough methodology.
According to the KMT’s own polls, “Ma still has a steady and significant lead,” Chuang said.
PFP spokesperson Wu Kun-yu (吳崑玉) said that the KMT has spread many false rumors in the past weeks, trying to choke off the PFP’s space, and that the party is working on how to break through the KMT’s “barricade.”
Translated by Jake Chung, staff writer
Source: Taipei Times - 2011/11/11
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