Taiwan Tati Cultural and Educational Foundation

 
  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home The News News Public confidence in Tsai rises as Ma drops

Public confidence in Tsai rises as Ma drops

Public confidence in Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) and her party reached new highs this month while President Ma Ying-jeou’s (馬英九) trust level continued to drop, the latest poll released by the Chinese-language Global Views Monthly magazine showed.

The poll, conducted by the Global Views Survey Research Center, put Tsai’s confidence index at 52.3 points on a scale of 0 to 100. The figure represented an increase of 1.1 points from last month and was the highest since May.

Ma’s confidence index, meanwhile, dropped 0.3 points from last month to 47.2 this month. It reached 50.1 in October, the highest since August last year. Meanwhile, the trust level for Premier Wu Den-yih (吳敦義) rose 0.4 points to 45.9.

Overall, public confidence in the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) was 45.5 this month, up 1.8 points.

Confidence in the DPP increased 2.3 points to 44, an all-time high since the center began the survey in July 2006.

Center director Lian Tai (戴立安) attributed the growing confidence in Tsai and her party to a positive public impression of the DPP, which won Greater Tainan and Greater Kaohsiung in last month’s five special municipality elections. The party also won the popular vote by 5 percentage points, or about 400,000 votes, despite only winning two of the five mayoral seats up for grabs.

Meanwhile, the Taiwan Public Mood Index (TPMI) this month edged up 3.2 points to 46.4. Although it remained below 50, it was the highest since the survey was launched in July 2006.

TPMI consists of two indexes: the political confidence index (PCI) and the economic confidence index (ECI).

The PCI was 50.9 this month — up 3.4 points. It was the first time the figure has been above the 50-mark since September last year. The ECI this month was 41.9 — the second highest since the survey was established. The ECI reached the highest in October, with 42.5 points.

Tai said although the figures reflected growing confidence in the economy, public confidence in Ma had yet to recover, he said.

On the political front, the poll showed the index for political optimism increased 7.4 points to 57.9. The political stability index for next month was 53.4 — an increase of 9.2 points — and the level of trust in cross-strait detente for next month grew 5.7 points to 62.4.

On the economic front, the current economic situation index was 34.6 points, a rise of 2.1 points from last month. The economic optimism index advanced 3.9 to 49.2 points.

The poll surveyed 1,008 adults nationwide from Dec. 13 to Dec. 15, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
 


Source: Taipei Times - 2010/12/28



Add this page to your favorite Social Bookmarking websites
Reddit! Del.icio.us! Mixx! Google! Live! Facebook! StumbleUpon! Facebook! Twitter!  
 

Newsflash

The odds of President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) being re-elected in 2012 yesterday fell below 50 percent for the first time since May, according to a university prediction market.

Prediction markets are speculative exchanges, with the value of an asset meant to reflect the likelihood of a future event.

On a scale from NT$0 to NT$100, the probability of Ma winning a re-election bid was, according to bidders, NT$48.40, the Center for Prediction Market at National Chengchi University said.

The center has market predictions on topics including politics, the economy, international affairs, sports and entertainment. Members can tender virtual bids on the events, with the bidding price meant to reflect probability.

The re-election market had attracted 860,000 trading entries as of yesterday. It was launched in April.

The center said the figure slipped 2.3 percentage points yesterday from a day earlier, when Ma conceded that his party did not fare as well as hoped in the “three-in-one” elections.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) won 12 of Saturday’s 17 mayor and commissioner elections, but its total percentage of votes fell 2 percentage points from 2005 to 47.88 percent of votes nationwide.

The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) won just four of the races, but received 45.32 percent of the ballots, or a 7.2 percentage-point increase from 2005.

Since the center opened the trading on Ma’s re-election chances on April 11, prices have largely hovered around NT$60, but jumped to NT$70 in mid-June. The figure then fell to NT$51.80 in August after Typhoon Morakot lashed Taiwan, killing hundreds.

After then-premier Liu Chao-shiuan (劉兆玄) resigned in September, the price returned to NT$63.2 and remained at around NT$60 for the following two months, the center said.

Since Ma took over as KMT chairman, the center said the number had steadily declined from NT$58 on Nov. 18 to NT$50.80 on Dec. 5. After Saturday’s elections, the figure fell below NT$50.

The center said the outcome yesterday would likely affect next year’s elections for the five special municipalities, as well as the next presidential election.

It also said the probability of Taipei Mayor Hau Lung-bin (郝龍斌) winning re-election was 72 percent, while the chances of Taipei County Commissioner Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) winning again were 20 percent.

Source: Taipei Times 2009/12/07