When most Americans think of China, they recall the majestic 2008 Summer Olympics, cheap goods and some relative or friend who has just returned from visiting the economic wonders of Shanghai or Beijing. When they hear about Chinese protestations over U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, as they did last week, they are often a bit surprised we even do such things anymore.
Yet the recent U.S. sale of Patriot antimissile systems to Taiwan is both strategically inadequate and long-delayed, and should be of great concern not merely to the Taiwanese but to the United States and its allies as well.
When they look at China, the people of Taiwan don't see skyscrapers and sparkling, brand-new cities; they see Beijing has amassed over 1,000 short- and medium-range missiles with conventional and nuclear warheads that can destroy or cripple their country. In addition, the 3.4-million member People's Liberation Army maintains an army, air force and navy and could mount an expeditionary force that, left unchecked, could invade and destroy the democratic island.
Even the most pro-trade U.S. policy makers must question why China adds hundreds of missiles to their large and deadly arsenal each year. They have enough to destroy Taiwan already. The answer of course is that China wants to intimidate the people of Taiwan, as they will intimidate the peoples of Asia, so that they ultimately accede to the demands of Beijing or face the consequences.
The essence of Taiwan's strategy is to possess whatever defensive measures will ensure the political administration of their free island. They do not sit under America's nuclear umbrella, such that the U.S. will engage in thermonuclear war with China, should China attack Taiwan. This fact was made plain in 1995, when Lt. General Xiong Guangkai of the People's Liberation Army warned a U.S. ambassador that Americans cared more for Los Angeles than they did Taipei. At that point, American policy makers should have taken more seriously the need for missile defense for the U.S. and its allies such as Taiwan. They did not.
As a practical matter, the defense of Taiwan requires substantial defensive forces and armaments to deter China from invasion or missile attack. It is not necessary or possible that Taiwan be able to invade and conquer mainland China. China must merely believe that an invasion of Taiwan would result in an island ruined and useless to them after a conflict, and that Beijing would be condemned on the world stage as a totalitarian aggressor. As a result, China would be left alienated from the world's economic and capital markets as countries would boycott their goods and investments and therefore deny them the resources to maintain their much-needed domestic economic growth.
The 23-million citizens of Taiwan enjoy their freedom today because they have convinced, for now, China's ruling elite of these possibilities. But this persuasion may not last forever. As China grows in economic and military power, its leaders may lose patience with the Taiwanese and believe they could attack the island without repercussions. In today's globalized world, who, after all, doesn't need to do business with 1.3 billion Chinese?
Analysts of cross-strait relations argue that U.S. arms sales are mostly symbolic since, after all, Chinese will never kill Chinese. This is very reassuring to the average U.S. policy maker, who would like nothing more than to trade with China and create jobs in America. But we know from history, including our own, that nations fight civil wars for larger reasons and that indeed, the state of civil war between China and Taiwan has not ended. Because the average Congressman does not understand that China will go to war over Taiwan, arm sales lagged during the Bush administration and appear only now to be gaining interest in the Obama administration.
But current arm sales, however necessary, are not enough. If the Obama administration is serious about defending Taiwan, it would approve the sale of not merely the Patriot antimissile system, but also Aegis Cruisers with SM-3 interceptors to stop more lethal Chinese missiles and submarines for patrolling Taiwan's coast. And instead of F-16 fighter airplanes as their first line of defense, the U.S. would sell Taipei the more advanced F-22 and whatever radars and advanced technology would be required to make them effective.
Absent such serious defensive weaponry, the sale of arms is just a symbolic gesture rather than a meaningful military acquisition. If the U.S. wants peaceful cross-strait relations, then we must help the Taiwanese create a balance of power that ensures that any future dialogue over reunification be conducted without nuclear blackmail and military intimidation. The citizens of Taiwan may someday decide to rejoin their brothers on the mainland, but that day will come when they decide democratically that it is in their interest to do so.
Since the recognition of China in 1979, the U.S. has followed a policy of strategic ambiguity with regard to how far we would go in the defense of Taiwan. During that time, Taiwan has become a brilliant example of democratic freedom. It is this example that all Americans wish for all the Chinese people. There should be no ambiguity that the U.S. wishes this to continue and that we will help the people of Taiwan help themselves.
Mr. Kennedy is President of the Claremont Institute in California and a member of the Independent Working Group on Missile Defense.
Source: Wall Street Journal
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