Taiwan's next year will be characterized by an intensifying contestation for political leadership between the faltering right-wing Chinese Nationalist Party (Kuomintang) government of President Ma Ying-jeou and the Taiwan - centric opposition led by the Democratic Progressive Party.
Beset by the pressures of the global financial tsunami and afflicted by its own incompetence and hubris, the Ma government has suffered a stunning erosion of public confidence while Taiwan's economy suffered its worst postwar performance with an estimated contraction of 2.5 percent that shattered the credibility of Ma's rash and misguided campaign promise to attain an average six percent growth pace during his term.
With the exception of a bubble on the first anniversary of his inaugural in May 2008, Ma's approval ratings have hovered between 20 percent and 30 percent for over a year while dissatisfaction in even pro-blue media has topped 50 percent or even 60 percent.
Besides its persistent mishandling of the economy as shown in the misguided consumer vouchers program and continued retreat in respect for press freedom and other civic rights, the KMT administration demonstrated its bureaucratic incompetence and arrogance in its handling of heavy floods following Typhoon Morakot in early August and the "black box" secretive signing of a protocol on Oct. 22 with Washington to lift controls over the imports of U.S. beef products, such as ground beef, intestines and offals, with high risk for "mad cow disease."
The caviler refusal by the Ma government to respect the principles of transparency or democratic accountability exploded into a diplomatic crisis with Taiwan's closest ally after the Legisalative Yuan revolted and boosted concerns and exacerbated the confidence crisis in the competence of the Ma government to engage in external diplomacy.
The fallout of this blunder is also affecting confidence in the Ma government's capability to defend Taiwan's fundamental interests in cross-strait negotiations with the authoritarian People's Republic of China, especially since the talks between the KMT and the PRC's ruling Chinese Communist Party take place in an even darker "black box."
It is thus understandable that 52 percent of 1,075 Taiwan adults polled by the pro-blue TVBS television network in mid-December said they did not have confidence in the KMT government's capability to uphold Taiwan's interests in negotiations with the PRC, far over the 35 percent who had confidence in the Ma administration.
DPP rebound
On the other hand, DPP Chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen's firm defense of Taiwan's democracy and sovereignty and her principled handling of the controversial corruption cases involving former president Chen Shui-bian has earned public respect, while the KMT's clumsy manipulation of the court cases combined with numerous convictions of KMT lawmakers for vote buying has made harping on the Chen Family cases now is counterproductive for the ruling party.
Instead, the DPP has been able to regain the political initiative in issues such as the beef imports, KMT electoral vote buying and the bitterly controversial push by the Ma government to sign an "economic cooperation framework agreement" with the PRC that threatens to tie Taiwan into a "one China market.'
With its strong showing in the local elections on Dec. 5, the DPP has shown that the KMT is far from invulnerable to Taiwan public opinion or safe from a possible third change in political power in 2012.
The result has been a reversal in the confidence quotient, as shown by the latest Global Views Taiwan Public Mood Index (TMPI) issued Dec. 25 which showed that public confidence in Ma had slipped from 52.6 points (of a potential 100) in May to 43.5 points or into the range of "losing public confidence," while public trust in Tsai has risen steadily from 40.7 points in May to 51.8 points or as "having some public confidence."
The DPP now faces the task of deepening public confidence through performance in local governance, effective "check and balance" monitoring of the Ma government, continued unity among party heavyweights and, most importantly, articulating a feasible and progressive Taiwan-centered vision in the run-up to the 2012 presidential and national legislative campaigns if it aims to again become a party that the people can trust with power.
The decisive arenas for this contestation over confidence and leadership will be the the debate over the accelerated push by the KMT and CCP for a fast signing of the ECFA that will lock Taiwan into the PRC's economic and political orbit and the year-end elections for the mayors and city councils of five giant metropolitan centers.
No less critically, the DPP will also have to contest for "ideological hegemony" in cross-strait relations with the PRC, whose leadership is becoming less confident that Ma and the KMT will be able to retain power in the early 2012 presidential and legislative polls and is preparing to "strike while the iron is hot" to tie Taiwan firmly into the "great China" political as well as economic orbit before increasingly possible return of the DPP to governance in 2012.
Source: Taiwan News Online - Editorial 2010/01/01
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