The victory of incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Kan Naoto in Tuesday's election for the presidency of the governing centrist Democratic Party of Japan over former DPJ secretary-general Ozawa Ichiro will both allow Kan to avoid the fate of being a "three - month" prime minister and exercise significant influence on the political situation in Northeast Asia.
First, most observers believed that Ozawa's diplomatic policy stance was more inclined to "move close to China and distant from the U.S." or even to use the objections of the majority of Okinawan people to the continuation of U.S. bases, to pressure Washington to agree to remove the controversial U.S. Marine Corps Air Base at Futenma.
On the other hand, Kan is perceived as a supporter of the U.S. - Japan security system, which the March sinking of the South Korean corvette "Cheonan" appears to have helped revitalize.
Given the apparent differences between the two DPJ heavyweights, Ozawa's defeat should pave the way for Kan to continue Tokyo's existing policy of security cooperation with Washington.
Second, Kan's victory may help impart a modicum of stability to Japan's turbulent politics which has seen a new prime minister each year for the past five years since former Liberal Democratic Party prime minister Koizumi Junichiro left office.
If Kan had been defeated, he would have been a "three month" prime minister and Tokyo's crisis of leadership would continue to fester.
Although said to be Japan's most unpopular politician, Ozawa is undoubtedly a master electoral strategist but his inability to leave behind the habits of manipulation of electoral funds learned in the LDP were a major factor in his defeat.
Moreover, even though Ozawa's emphasis that the DPJ should implement its electoral program is a positive sign of political responsibility, the Japanese electorate, especially relatively more progressive voters who back the DPJ, showed that they also want an end to such electoral manipulation and money politics.
Moreover, the repeated rotation of new prime ministers has made it impossible for the Japanese government to effectively address its domestic challenges, much less retain international confidence.
Hopefully, this result will help Kan remain prime minister and DPJ president through the remaining three years of the lower house's term and thus impart a modicum of stability to the Japanese government and give Tokyo some time to rebuild its international credibility.
Leaning to which side
However, it was noteworthy that the vote of confidence in Kan's leadership occurred just as the yen was soaring to an unwelcome peak of 83 to the U.S. dollar.
Kan faces severe challenges on the economic and fiscal policy fronts, especially since his party has promised to expand government spending to stimulate the economy and improve social welfare.
The lack of political stability has made it more difficult for Tokyo to address the fundamental causes of Japan's declining economic competitiveness and it is to be hoped that Kan will now enjoy some space to formulate and implement consistent policies to improve fiscal health and economic competitiveness without which Japan's regional and global influence will continue to erode.
Since Kan's victory will not change the current climate in either the Japanese political stage or the DPJ , there should be no changes in Tokyo's policies toward Taiwan for the time being, but the tilt of President Ma Ying-jeou's government toward a "Chinese nationalist" stance is undoubtedly fostering concern on the Japanese side.
The Ma government has adopted an ambiguous stance on the latest incident concerning the Diaoyutai or Senkaku islets in which a People's Republic of China - registered fishing boat "Minjin" collided with two Coast Guard vessels, after which the Japanese ships detained the "Minjin" captain.
Besides prompting a formal protests by the PRC to Tokyo and by Japanese diplomats, the incident promoted Taiwan "Protect Diaoyutai" activists to declare their intention to take to the seas to defend the "sovereignty" over the islets.
In addition, Taiwan's foreign ministry summoned Japan Interchange Association representative Imai Tadashi to reaffirm "the sovereignty of the Republic of China" over the Diaoyutai islets and called on Tokyo "not to interfere" in the "spontaneous" action by the Taiwan unificationist group.
Nevertheless, the participation of 12 Taiwan coast guard vessels in a five-hour standoff near the islets Wednesday morning has sparked suspicion in Tokyo that Taipei is willing to form a tacit "united front" with Beijing to put pressure on Japan's control over the islets, a suspicion which the Beijing's Taiwan Affairs Office did little to alleviate with its declaration that "upholding sovereignty benefits both sides of the Taiwan Strait."
Given the Washington's reviving presence in Asia in response to the PRC's upfront assertion of "territorial sovereignty" from the Yellow to the East China Sea, there is little room for improvement in ties between Tokyo and Beijing in the near term.
However, Beijing's increasing weight has clearly placed the Ma government in a quandary and it is quite possible that the the direction of Tokyo's policy toward Taiwan will be decided by which side Ma ultimately decides to lean toward.
Source: Taiwan News Online - Editorial 2010/0916
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