A crisis is gathering in the Taiwan Strait. Taiwan’s status as an independent democracy is being undermined daily as the momentum for its annexation by the People’s Republic of China inexorably gains strength. The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is collaborating with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to implement the cultural and economic integration of Taiwan with China, aiming for the signing of a peace accord before the end of 2012. The fall of Taiwan would be a geostrategic disaster for the US and would most likely deprive US President Barack Obama of his chance for re-election in November 2012.
Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) is scheduled to leave office in October 2012. He intends to accomplish the absorption of Taiwan before then as his historical legacy for the People’s Republic. The signing of a peace accord is the last item on his Six Points agenda for the unification of Taiwan and China.
President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is expected to run for re-election in March 2012. If his approval ratings are still as low as they are now, Beijing will apply pressure on the Ma administration to sign a peace accord before the end of his term of office and formally accept China’s claim of sovereignty over Taiwan.
If Ma is re-elected, this would certainly be taken as a mandate to deliver democratic Taiwan into the CCP’s grasp. Ma has repeatedly declared that his goal is ultimate unification. His policy is steady progress toward the surrendering of Taiwan’s freedom by 2012 by concluding an economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA) by this summer. Beijing has openly admitted that the signing of an ECFA is a means toward political integration of Taiwan and China.
Under Ma’s policy of opening up Taiwan to Chinese investment, tens of thousands of Chinese white collar workers are now living in Taiwan. This influx will grow rapidly.
The Ma government is also pressing Taiwan’s media to refrain from criticizing its policies or human rights violations in China. Taiwan’s police are harassing or intimidating people engaged in peaceful demonstrations, either by physical violence or imposition of fines. Taiwan’s judiciary is increasingly serving as the KMT’s political tool, its traditional role during the White Terror era.
The repression of Taiwan’s democracy is another way of paving the ground for Taiwan’s capitulation. If Taiwan were no longer a democracy, it would certainly lose US support and Taiwanese would have less reason to resist Chinese aggression.
A great majority of the people in Taiwan prefer to keep their democratic way of life. Yet they often feel helpless in stopping the KMT’s relentless march toward Taiwan’s capitulation. The KMT controls a two-thirds majority in the legislature and could pass any law it chooses. Taiwan’s media is also dominated by the KMT and other pro-China forces. The anxiety regarding Taiwan’s future and growing anger over Ma’s betrayal of the people’s trust make for a combustible instability.
Ramming a peace accord down people’s throats may backfire. There could be a widespread popular upheaval against the Ma government, reminiscent of the situation in February 1947. The upper echelons of Taiwan’s military is still dominated by Mainlanders and their offspring, but the middle and lower ranks are not. The big question is whether the military would meekly follow any order from Ma to disarm and surrender. Beijing has clearly asserted that in the event of major domestic disturbance in Taiwan, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would invade.
In his testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission on March 18, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia David Shear said: “We do not support Taiwan independence. We are opposed to unilateral attempts by either side to change the status quo.”
So presumably Washington prefers to keep Taiwan’s status quo. Yet as a practical matter, how would the US government oppose KMT/CCP collusion to destroy Taiwan’s democracy against the wishes of most Taiwanese?
To maintain the status quo while coping with Beijing’s wrath would be no easy task. Yet preserving Taiwan’s freedom is essential to the viability of the US-Japan alliance and US interests in East Asia.
The “10,000 letters to President Obama” campaign, which was launched by the North America Taiwanese Women’s Association in July last year was intended to call Obama’s attention to the coming crisis in Taiwan and to make four policy recommendations.
With the help of other Taiwanese American organizations and two NGOs in Taiwan, the group eventually collected more than 18,000 signed letters. The result was the meeting that took place on March 23 at the Rosslyn office of the American Institute in Taiwan. (“Groups petition Obama to help Taiwan,” March 25, page 1).
The first suggestion is for Obama to reaffirm the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). The Obama administration has already done this by approving the sale of a US$6.4 billion arms package to Taiwan in January, including PAC-III missiles and Black Hawk helicopters.
The request by Taiwan’s government to purchase 66 F-16C/D fighter jets, however, is still pending. The Feb. 16 report of the US Defense Intelligence Agency found that Taiwan’s fleet of aging aircraft urgently needs upgrades. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense recently reported that Taiwan’s fighter aircraft are generally inferior to China’s. There is no question that Taiwan needs the F-16C/D fighters to redress the growing military imbalance with China.
Some analysts doubt that the Obama administration would risk angering Beijing by approving the sale of the F-16C/Ds, but under the TRA, the president and Congress are required to determine the nature and quantity of arms sales to Taiwan “based solely on their judgment of the needs of Taiwan.” In August 1982, then-US president Ronald Reagan assured Taipei that Washington would not hold consultations with Beijing on arms sales to Taiwan.
We urge Obama to approve the sale of the F-16C/Ds soon, since F-16 production will soon be closing down. Such a show of resolve will help in reassuring Japan, whose recent attempt to distance itself from the US is partly because of its growing doubts about Washington’s commitment to stay in East Asia over the long haul.
The second suggestion is for the Obama administration to voice concern about the recent erosion of freedom of speech and assembly and the loss of judicial independence in Taiwan. Past US administrations and particularly Congress have encouraged and supported Taiwanese democratization. The US has also criticized China for its human rights violations against its own people. So there is no reason why the Obama administration should keep silent in the face of the deterioration of democratic institutions in Taiwan. A free and prosperous Taiwan is in the US’ interest.
Thirdly, counterproductive restrictions on Washington-Taipei contacts could be removed by sending a Cabinet member to Taiwan and allowing US Navy ships to call at Taiwanese ports, points made by Congressman Ed Royce during a speech at George Washington University in May last year.
The military balance across the Taiwan Strait has shifted decisively in China’s favor. Taiwan’s freedom is in jeopardy because of external threat and internal subversion. The US must pay close attention to the rapidly changing situation within Taiwan.
In the aftermath of Typhoon Morakot, the US military extended assistance to Taiwan expeditiously — an action that was greatly appreciated and that lifted Taiwanese morale. High-level visits between Washington and Taipei would facilitate mutual understanding. Visits by US flag officers could forestall unpleasant surprises.
The last suggestion is to deploy two aircraft carrier task forces in the western Pacific and secure basing rights in the Philippines and the Ryuku Islands. This is in line with the TRA’s requirement that the US maintain the capacity to resist any resort to force or other form of coercion.
In the last Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) released by the US Department of Defense before the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, then-US secretary of defense Donald Rumsfeld made similar recommendations. The QDR said Asia was the most dynamic region in the world, with the economies of China and India developing rapidly. Yet unlike Europe, there are no multilateral security arrangements in Asia.
To remain a global power and to protect its economic, political and security interests, the US must engage Asian nations and try to maintain peace and stability in the region. With the growth of China’s economy and its military power, this is even more compelling today.
A stronger US military presence in East Asia would help deter Chinese military adventures and reassure Washington’s democratic allies about US resolve to remain a Pacific power. It will also contribute to a more robust US-Japan security partnership.
If the Obama administration could adopt such policy prescriptions, there is a chance that the status quo could be maintained until such time that a peaceful resolution of Taiwan’s status that is acceptable to the Taiwanese can be found. Failure to act in time, however, means democratic Taiwan will become part of autocratic China before the end of 2012.
The consequences include the collapse of the US-Japan alliance as Japan turns into a vassal state of China, unpredictable instability on the Korean peninsula and Chinese hegemony over all Asia as US forces withdraw back to Hawaii.
After such a major victory over the US, an intransigent China would pursue an expansionist agenda of world domination, ultimately bringing China into conflict with the US.
The above scenario is plausible. Its realization would mean that Obama would be remembered in history as the president who triggered the greatest security threat to the US homeland.
I urge Obama to act before it is too late.
Li Thian-hok is a freelance commentator based in Pennsylvania. The views expressed in this article are his own and do not necessarily reflect those of the Taipei Times.
Source: Taipei Times - Editorials 2010/04/13
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