Key European countries, namely Britain, France, and Germany, have a moral obligation to help arm Taiwan right now, but in strictly practical consideration of Sino-Russian invasion threats that could materialize in the 2030s, the European democracies collectively should be helping Taiwan to deter a Chinese invasion.
Expressing perhaps the strongest support for Taiwan of any modern British Prime Minister, asked in a September 25, 2022 CNN interview if Britain would match United States President Joe Biden’s pledges to defend Taiwan, new Prime Minister Liz Truss stated, “What I’ve been clear about is that all of our allies need to make sure Taiwan is able to defend itself, and that is very, very important.”
Indeed this is “very, very important,” on two levels. First, Britain, France, and Germany have an obligation to reverse the damage created by decades of selling military technology, much of it dual-use, that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have persistently incorporated into weapons it is now using against Taiwan.
As part of the CCP’s “New Normal” for Taiwan of increased military pressure to prepare for a possible near-term invasion, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense the PLA conducted about 887 combat aircraft sorties around Taiwan in August, for a daily average of 28.6, and in September conducted about 575 sorties, for a daily average of 19.16.
This included 18 sorties in August, and 33 sorties in September, of the Xian Aircraft Corporation JH-7 or JH-7A strike fighter, at least 260 of which are in service with the PLA Air Force and PLA Naval Air Force.
The JH-7A can carry 9,000 kilograms of weapons, to include up to four anti-ship missiles and many precision-guided bombs to enforce a blockade and support an invasion.
After failing to reproduce the British Rolls-Royce Spey turbofan from an early batch acquired in the 1970s, by about 1998 Britain approved a Rolls-Royce sale to China of some Spey turbofans and the means to co-produce the Spey, which by 2004 emerged as the “Qinling” turbofan that made possible most of the PLA’s JH-7A strike fighter fleet.
In addition, the CCP’s “New Normal” program of military terror against Taiwan has included a daily average of 7.5 PLA Navy (PLAN) warships patrolling around Taiwan in August, and a daily average of 4.7 warships in September.
On any given day, the collection of PLAN warships has included the 1,800 ton Type 056 corvette (72 in PLAN), the 4,000 ton Type 054A frigate (31 in PLAN) and the 7,500 ton Type 052D destroyer (22 in PLAN).
Most of these warships are powered by marine diesel engines co-produced in China under license by Germany’s MTU and by the former French SEMT Pielstick, purchased by Germany’s MAN in 2006.
MTU co-produced diesels also power most of the PLAN’s Type 039 (13 in PLAN) and Type -39A/B (18 in PLAN) conventional attack submarines, that would play a decisive role in any future CCP attempt to blockade Taiwan.
During an early 2000s meeting of the US Taiwan Business Council Defense Conference, following President George W. Bush’s announced intention to help Taiwan acquire 8 new submarines, a German engineer told this analyst how they corrected “mistakes” made by Israeli engineers on the first Type 039 “Song” class submarine.
European helicopter technology, from France’s former Aerospatiale, now Airbus, has propelled the PLA’s modern helicopter development, accounting for about 450 medium and heavy helicopters (Z-9; WZ-9;Z-8; Z-8B) in the PLA Ground Force (PLAGF) and PLAN.
Airbus, according to its web page, accounts for 36 percent of “civil” helicopter sales to China, which the PLA will not hesitate to mobilize for PLA Ground Force invasion and military occupation of Taiwan.
A 2014 deal to co-produce 1,000 of the AC352 7.5 ton class helicopter, or Z-15 military designation, co-developed with China as the H175 by Airbus, has helped the PLA obtain state of the art helicopter and helicopter engine technology, and will directly increase the PLA’s ability to create more PLAGF Air Assault units to attack Taiwan.
While the European Union imposed “an embargo on arms trade with China” in June 1989 after the Tiananmen Massacre, it was subject to wide interpretations by some European countries to permit the sale of “dual use” technologies and occasional direct military sales, which have collectively accelerated China’s ability to threaten Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and the US-led alliance system in Asia.
But now on a second level, European irresponsibility is creating another major threat: if China’s threats to Asia are successful, meaning the PLA destroys Taiwan’s democratic era and the CCP conducts mass purges, relocations, and military conscription of Taiwan’s population, China will be more powerfully positioned to support future Russian ambitions to conquer Europe.
Both Russia and China today are united in their ambition to overthrow the “rules-based order” built by the democracies of Europe and America, sustaining decades of security and prosperity.
China expects that Russia will militarily support a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and Russia and China have engaged in nuclear missile defense exercises, nuclear bomber exercise, and naval exercises to that end. China has trained Russian troops in the use of modern Chinese medium weight armor systems. Both routinely use their UN veto to support each other, as presently in Putin’s Ukraine predations.
After the successful conquest of Taiwan assisted by Russia, it is logical that Russia would expect China to militarily assist its future aggression, be that a new invasion of the Ukraine, the Baltic states, or Poland.
Though such threats may not materialize until later this decade, especially after China achieves nuclear superiority over the United States, enhanced by cooperative nuclear targeting with Russia, it becomes an urgent, a “very, very important” necessity for Europe to help arm Taiwan today.
Ensuring the survival of a free Taiwan offers Europe the best chance for preventing a chain of developments leading to a combined Russia-China joint invasion force that could threaten Europe.
Europe produces many weapons and military technologies that it could sell directly to Taiwan, like the Eurojet EJ200 fighter turbofan that could power Taiwan’s next-generation Indigenous Defense Fighter.
But there are also opportunities for multilateral European military cooperative assistance for Taiwan.
A coalition of European states could fund or finance with generous terms the very near term transfer of one or two new or relatively new conventional submarines to Taiwan, to boost its immediate naval deterrent and to accelerate training for Taiwan’s indigenous submarines.
Taiwan also requires training, light mobile 155mm artillery systems made by a number of European countries, and far greater stocks of ammunition and emergency supplies to withstand a CCP/PLA blockade/embargo made possible by legacy European air and naval technology.
The coalition of European countries, along with the US, Japan, Australia and others that has trained and funded (perhaps over US$120 billion) the increasingly successful Ukrainian resistance of Russia’s invasion should now “reconvene” to consider how they can best increase Taiwan’s ability to defeat and withstand any future invasion attempt by China.
For European countries this can compensate for their previous military support of China, affirm their opposition to China’s threat to the nation state system and deny the CCP its first goal on the way to global hegemony, which could include future Russia-China aggression in Europe.
Richard D. Fisher, Jr. is a senior fellow with the International Assessment and Strategy Center.
Source: Taipei Times - Editorials 2022/10/10
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